Rocket Mortgage Classic: Finding value in the best bets

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For the past month, your boy has been traveling the United States, but no worries at all because I am officially back in the saddle and ready to rock and roll this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Make sure to breathe a sigh of relief before you handicap this event. This is the first week in forever where there is no Rory McIlroy, Xander Schaffuele, or Scottie Scheffler in the field. We actually have a chance to cash an outright higher than +1000.

This tournament is near and dear to my heart because I spent much time in Detroit as the Metro-Detroit Market Sales Manager. I would attend all week, inviting clients to get up close and personal with the PGA Tour pros.

During my time walking this course, there were many instances where I felt that I could destroy it. It’s about as easy and straightforward as it gets.

The fairways are wide enough, and the rough isn’t remotely penal.

The course is flat, and most approaches will be from 125 yards and in. Basically, year after year, the guys who boss this course are the bomb and gaugers. The dudes are crazy long off the tee and get hot with their wedges, and their putter drives them to victory.

Key Metrics to Success:

Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting
Birdies or Better Gained
SG: Approach
Proximity: 100-125
Proximity: 75-100
GIRs Gained
Scrambling

Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Picks

Robert MacIntyre to win +4000

I have six outright selections on my card for this week, and there’s a clear and consistent trend among all the golfers I bet on. They are all long off the tee and can dial it in with wedges when the approaches are short.

Robert MacIntyre isn’t a golfer I typically bet on in the outright market. He’s prone to random blow-up rounds that either cost him a top-10 finish or, worse, a missed cut. Most of those rounds are derailed by his poor driving at times. However, he should not have a single issue at Detroit Country Club.

Bobby Mac is long and not always that accurate. However, his length off the tee should be a great asset given how strong of a putter he is. Over the last 36 rounds he’s fourth in SG: P. His scrambling is nice as well and he can get birdies in bunches.

He’s a golfer when he’s having major success it’s because he’s putting lights out. In his win at the RBC Canadian Open he gained 11.2 strokes on the putting surface. Here at Detroit CC, it could certainly turn into a putting contest, a contest which MacIntrye should be well prepared for.

Other Outright Bets: Taylor Pendrith +2800, Stephan Jaeger +2800, Ryan Fox +5500, Jake Knapp +11000

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Alex Noren Top 20 +170

Given Alex Noren’s history here, it’s more than acceptable to bet him in the outright market. His price at +3500 has more than enough value to take a stab at him. He’s finished T9 and T4 in his last two trips here.

He was playing stellar golf until the latest run of long and difficult courses. Now, Noren should be in for a real treat on another course that should play super soft this week.

Before the PGA Championship, he had finished inside the top 25 in seven straight events, with the Wells Fargo and Corales being the only two where he was outside the top 20.

Accuracy off the tee and draining putts is Noren’s master set of tools. Both should come in hand this week.

Other Placement Bets: Tom Kim Top 20 +100, Cameron Young Top 20 +108, Akshay Bhatia Top 20 +150,

Stephan Jaeger Top German -225 to win 1 unit

This is a head-to-head against fellow German Matti Schmid. Many bettors will look at this bet and scoff at the heavy juice associated with Jaeger over Schmid. Let me be clear: I don’t always recommend heavily juiced lines. However, this one was a no-brainer for me.

The -225 price indicates a 69% implied probability that Jaeger will be Schmid in this tournament. Looking at the placement market alone, Jaeger is +180 to finish in the top 20, and Schmid is +500.

We should also take comfort in the three consecutive missed cuts from Schmid. In those three events, he’s struggled T2G, losing strokes in all three events. He did pop at Corales, but he missed the cut at the other birdie fest, the Mexico Open.

I like Jaeger to have a big week and even possibly be in contention come Sunday. We shall see if the juice is worth the squeeze.

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