British Open 2023: History majorly favors 54-hole leader Brian Harman
Brian Harman doesn’t just hold a commanding five-shot lead after 54 holes of the 151st Open Championship.
He has history behind him – mostly.
In the history of major championships, just six players have led by five or more shots after 54 holes and gone on to lose the tournament. Just twice has it happened at The Open, in 1925 and 1999.
Here is the complete list of largest 54-hole major collapses:
• 6 shots – Greg Norman, 1996 Masters (lost by 5)
• 5 shots – Ed Sneed, 1979 Masters (lost in playoff)
• 5 shots – Mike Brady, 1919 U.S. Open (lost in playoff)
• 5 shots – Jean Van de Velde, 1999 Open (lost in playoff)
• 5 shots – Macdonald Smith, 1925 Open (lost by 3)
• 5 shots – Tom Watson, 1987 PGA (lost in playoff)
Full-field scores from the 151st Open Championship
Van de Velde’s collapse at Carnoustie is the only one of the above six to have happened in the past 25 years. During that span, six other players have led by five or more after 54 holes of a major and won. Harman is looking to join the victorious sixsome.
Harman’s chasers are hoping for some history of their own. Cameron Young is five shots back, Jon Rahm six shots and five players, including Viktor Hovland and Jason Day, seven shots. Twenty-three players are within 10 shots of Harman, which if any of the 2-unders went on to lift the claret jug on Sunday, it would match the guy who spoiled Van de Velde’s chances of victory, Paul Lawrie, who rallied from 10 shots back after 54 holes to beat Van De Velde in a playoff.
Ten players in golf history have come from six or more shots behind to win a major title.
Harman has held three 54-hole leads, of any kind, in his PGA Tour career: 2014 John Deere Classic, 2015 Travelers Championship and 2017 U.S. Open. He won only one of those three, the Deere.
As for the betting markets, Harman is listed at -200 odds to win by DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet, and -175 by BetMGM.