John Deere Classic Best Bets

John Deere Classic Best Bets
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There are a few tournaments on the schedule where the biggest names on the PGA Tour opt to skip to rest and prepare for the grueling stretch of the season.

The John Deere Classic is one of those events. If you look at the participant list, you will notice that big names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schaffuele are missing. But fear not; fan-favorite Jordan Spieth (+2000) has decided to tee it up at the TPC Deere Run this week.

It feels weird having Spieth in a field where he’s the biggest-name golfer yet not the pre-tournament favorite. That honor is reserved for Sungjae Im (+1400). Some will blindly bet on Spieth, given his name and success on Tour. I’m passing. Given the state of his game right now, I would need at least +3500 before I consider placing a wager on him.

To be fair, the golfers’ pricing feels gross due to the lack of strength in the field. I am betting on a golfer whose price is much shorter than I’d like, but that is the game we play. Take the best golfers at the best prices. Sometimes, the price you write on your paper is larger than the one the sportsbook writes. Then, it becomes a numbers game. You calculate the entire hold of the event compare your prices with the ones listed, and make the best bets based on perceived value.

Nonetheless, the JDC should be a lot of fun to watch this week. Defending champion Sepp Straka (+1600) won this event at 21-under last season. The year prior, J.T. Poston (+2800) won at 21-under, and in 2021, Lucas Glover won at 19-under. With rain on Tuesday and expected morning showers on Thursday, the course should be softer and more getable by the field.

Here are the key metrics I used when building out my primary scoring model

Key Metrics Correlated to Success

  • Driving Accuracy
  • Driving Distance
  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • SG: Putting
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 4: 400-450 yards
  • Proximity: 125-150 yards

John Deere Classic Best Bets

Davis Thompson to win +2200

Mr. Davis Thompson is one of those golfers from the University of Georgia who are damn good PGA Tour pros. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour, but with three top-10 finishes this season, it feels like his time is coming soon.

After finishing T9 two weeks ago at the US Open and being runner-up last week at Rocket Mortgage, I’m excited to have a wager on him to win this course. I could see him having some success.

Thompson isn’t crazy accurate off the tee, hitting fairways at just 60%, so given the accuracy of the last three winners, he could be facing an uphill battle, but I am using his skill and form to decide that he is winning this tournament.

Thompson is a beast on par 5s. The three par 5s are three of the four easiest holes on the golf course. All three have birdie percentages of 32.1% or greater.

He’s also nails around the green and hits a ton of greens in regulation. If his driver and putter are on this week, everything in between should propel him to a fun Sunday finish.

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Aaron Rai top 20 (-120)

There might not be a better course fit than Aaron Rai this week. At TPC Deere Run, you want to bet on golfers who are accurate off the tee and very skilled second-shot golfers. Rai is precisely that.

After a close call at Rocket Mortgage, there will be some questions about the emotional state of Rai. Unless you’re Scheffler, it isn’t easy to be in contention for four days and come back the following week and play at the highest level.

Rai was a dog last week on the course. There were moments when he might have made the wrong club selection or made a poor decision; however, outside of that, he played some phenomenal golf. He was impressive, hitting fairways at a high clip; his second shot was precise with his irons, and his putter was scorching.

Great play has been nothing new to Rai over the last few months. He has four top-20 finishes in his previous six starts.

For the rest of my John Deere Classic bets, visit my page.

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