Punch Shot: Scottie Scheffler or the field? Favorite U.S. Open venue?
Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite to win the 124th U.S. Open. Would you take him or the field?
GolfChannel.com writers are on site at Pinehurst No. 2 with this quick Q&A ahead of the men’s third major of the season.
SCOTTIE OR THE FIELD?
Ryan Lavner: I’ll take the field, begrudgingly. The way he’s playing, and the way Pinehurst demands precise iron play and nifty scrambling, it’s easy to see Scheffler – by FAR the best player on the planet right now – winning by a handful of shots, similar to what Martin Kaymer did here in 2014. But Pinehurst is also such a unique venue, with some of the randomness of the bounces and the roll-outs and the wiregrass in the sandy areas, that it wouldn’t surprise if Scheffler is a couple shots adrift at the end of the week just because of sheer luck. How’s that for a hedge?
Rex Hoggard: Scottie Scheffler. Today, tomorrow and until he shows the slightest sign of any weakness, particularly on a course that is perfect for his sublime blend of ball-striking and clutch short game. In 2014 when Martin Kaymer won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, the No. 2 course ranked first that season in greens-in-regulation bias because of how difficult it was to scramble. This championship should be no different.
Brentley Romine: Scheffler. Far and away the best player in the game and playing on a course that suits his strengths – sticking approach shots and scrambling at a world-class level when he occasionally misses the mark.
WINNING SCORE?
Lavner: 4 under. It feels like the kind of Open in which the first-round score ends up being the winning total, or at least around that number. It’s only going to get hotter, firmer and faster as the week progresses. Though the USGA has drifted more toward fair than foul with its course setup in recent years, and this is an anchor site they desperately want to get right, some of the pins could get dicey come the weekend because of the fiery conditions. Or so we hope!
Hoggard: 9 under. Kaymer’s winning total was 9 under but that’s misleading considering that second place was eight shots back. Expect a closer finish this time around but the No. 2 course stands up to the modern game with a similarly perfect U.S. Open total.
Romine: 5 under. A few scores in the mid-60s may pop up early, but with little to no rain expected, the USGA is going to let Pinehurst get as firm and fast as the players can handle – well, at least some of them.
KEEP AN EYE ON …
Lavner: Cameron Smith. Remember him? Though it seems as though he’s gone quiet on the world stage since his 2022 Open victory (and ensuing move to LIV), he’s actually posted three top-10s in his last five major starts. The wide corridors off the tee and short-game demands off the tightly mown Bermuda should play into his favor, even if his form is slightly off at the moment, with a final-round 80 last week in Houston and a tie for 63th last month at the PGA. He still has some of the best hands in golf.
Hoggard: Collin Morikawa. Given his play the last few weeks it would be a surprise if Morikawa isn’t in the conversation late Sunday and after Scheffler, he might be the best equipped for Pinehurst. He ranks 11th this season in strokes gained: tee-to-green and ninth in strokes gained: around the green, which will be a key metric on a course that tests every aspect of a player’s game.
Romine: There are obvious challengers to Scheffler, such as Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa. But here are a few guys you may not be thinking about that could earn top-10s. Russell Henley finds fairways, hits it close, is top notch on and around the greens. There aren’t a ton of negatives other than he’s not long. He’s also got a pair of top-15s in his last three U.S. Open starts. Also don’t be surprised if one – or all three – of Victor Perez, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Aaron Rai contend.
FAVORITE U.S. OPEN COURSE?
Lavner: Pebble Beach. Had the opportunity to play Pinehurst No. 2 for the media day last month, and I walked away with a greater appreciation of the iconic Donald Ross design. It’ll play spectacularly well for the pros, a refreshing change of pace from the style of play that is so monotonous week-in and week-out on Tour. Options are a good thing! The course is under siege because of the distance boom, but Pebble still is the gold standard to me; the location, the history, the stakes all make the event feel bigger. But I may change my mind by week’s end here.
Hoggard: Pinehurst No. 2. This might be recency bias, but it’s difficult to find a fault with the Donald Ross gem. This week’s firm and fast conditions will add the only degree of difficulty that challenges the game’s best players and as an anchor venue, the course has all the logistic requirements to host a major.
Romine: Merion. Followed closely by Pinehurst No. 2 and Shinnecock Hills. Yes, I understand the logistics of holding the USGA’s biggest championship at little ol’ Merion’s East Course. But there’s a reason the USGA will come back in 2030, 2040 and 2050. Some great moments with Bob Jones, Ben Hogan, and Lee Trevino and Jack Nicklaus. And who doesn’t love the wicker baskets?