Punch shot: Who wins The 2024 Open and who leaves Royal Troon disappointed?
Eight years since the epic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson, The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon.
While Scottie Scheffler is the favorite, it’s not by much, as Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa all are popular picks to win as well.
But who will win? What will they shoot? Who will be most disappointed? And what names will surprise?
Our team of expert writers offer their predictions:
Who holds the claret jug on Sunday?
RYAN LAVNER: Rory McIlroy. Can you imagine this redemption story? And there’s ample reason to believe it’s possible. He’s been lights-out with his ball-striking his last few events, and early-week visits with Brad Faxon and Luke Donald should help get his putting right after an off-week at the Scottish. Once purely a high-ball masher, McIlroy has adapted his well-rounded game to the unique demands of links golf, evidence being his six top-6s in his last eight Open starts. A month after his major heartbreak, he’s a few shots better this time.
REX HOGGARD: Scottie Scheffler. This goes beyond chalk and to the heart of the most important question Royal Troon asks: ball-striking. In 2016 when Henrik Stenson made history with a 20-under total he led the field hitting 56 greens in regulation and Scheffler leads the PGA Tour this season in GIR. He also has shown an affinity for links golf having finished inside the top 25 in his three starts at The Open.
BRENTLEY ROMINE: Rory McIlroy. After his U.S. Open collapse, it’s easy to be down on McIlroy and ask yourself, Is he ever going to win another major? That’s kind of silly, to be honest, especially considering that it’s not like McIlroy has bombed at the big tournaments – he’s been T-12 or better in nine of his last 11 major starts, a run that includes three runners-up. With lots of trouble lurking when players get off their lines, Troon asks players to grab driver and find the fairway; McIlroy, the Tour’s leader in total driving, does that better than anybody. Scottie Scheffler might have the advantage from there, but McIlroy gets the slight edge considering his longer history with links.
20 under won last time at Royal Troon; what wins this year?
LAVNER: 12 under. Much, as always, depends on the weather forecast; if the wind dies down, we could be looking at another low-scoring shootout, only this time with more of the field in play. But for now, the forecast calls for a mix of rain and wind, and the prospect of the more difficult back nine playing into a stiff crosswind should keep scores in check. It may not be the most imaginative course on The Open rota, but it’s a stern test.
HOGGARD: 10 under. Forget Stenson’s ’16 total of 20 under, that was an aberration. The relevant number is 6 under, that was J.B. Holmes’ total for third place, 14 shots behind the winning Swede and 11 strokes behind runner-up Phil Mickelson. Given the forecast and the density of Royal Troon’s rough, it’s unlikely Stenson’s total will be touched.
ROMINE: Not anywhere close to that. With some wet and gusty conditions early, we may see a slow start that picks up speed as the weekend arrives. Give me 12 under, as someone is going to give themselves plenty of looks from the fairway and hit lots of greens like Henrik Stenson did eight years ago.
Who leaves most disappointed?
LAVNER: Bryson DeChambeau. It doesn’t feel good to doubt the player who has reinvented himself and his game countless times, and a superstar who is enjoying his best major season, but this week will be a good litmus test. Just once in his career has he finished inside the top 30 in The Open, a product, no doubt, of his moonshot tee balls that get hammered by the breeze. DeChambeau has vowed to play more conservatively off the tee if the situation demands it, but he also said that at Pinehurst – and then promptly altered his strategy and led the field in driving distance. If he continues to wail away, he’ll have to get lucky to avoid trouble.
HOGGARD: Rory McIlroy. Based on McIlroy’s play last week at the Genesis Scottish Open he comes into The Open with momentum and motivation but, as his missteps coming down the stretch at last month’s U.S. Open proved, his desire to win his first major in a decade is as much a challenge as the wind, rain and Royal Troon’s thick rough. McIlroy will likely contend, but he doesn’t leave with the claret jug.
ROMINE: Brooks Koepka. For the fourth time in as many majors this year, Koepka doesn’t crack the top 20. At Augusta National, it was the iron play and short game. At Valhalla, it was more approach struggles. At Pinehurst, the flatstick was the main culprit. Koepka just hasn’t been able to get everything clicking, and I don’t see it all coming together this week.
Who is your dark-horse contender?
LAVNER: Aaron Rai. As precise as they come and arrives at Troon in red-hot form having rattled off three consecutive top-7s. Go back even further, to March, and he has seven top-20s. Just like that, he has surged to a career-best 45th in the world. The 29-year-old Englishman’s last of his two DP World Tour titles came at the 2020 Scottish Open, and he already has a top-20 in limited Open action. At 45-1, he’s a fine each-way bet this week.
HOGGARD: Adam Scott. Rounds of 67-65-63-67 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open was a solid step in the right direction for the veteran, but it was his confidence with his swing and his steady putting, which has become a liability in recent years, that suggests he could contend for the title that has eluded him for more than two decades.
ROMINE: Si Woo Kim, who at No. 48 barely qualifies as a sleeper. Why would I pick a guy who doesn’t have a top-10 since The Players? Because Kim has been close, notching nine finishes of T-32 or better in 11 starts since. He finds fairways, hits greens and is a good lag putter. The Open resume isn’t great, but he was T-15 at St. Andrews, so there’s at least some confidence across the pond. And if you want a deep sleeper, take a swing with either Tom McKibbin, the 21-year-old from Holywood, Northern Ireland, or amateur Calum Scott from Texas Tech by way of Scotland.