The Open Championship Best Bets
BANG! *In Mike Breen’s voice* We did it! Outright win number eight and back-to-back weeks with an outright winner!!
Last week’s sweat during the Evian Championship, where Ayaka Furue sent me on a roller coaster of emotions, is one I will never forget. Friday, she was a stone-cold killer until the weather halted play. She couldn’t make a birdie on Saturday as she finished up the second round but still held a three-stroke lead.
During the third round, she seemingly lost her driver and could not put together a round good enough to keep her lead. Then, late Sunday, she was all but out until late-round heroics, topped off by a five-foot eagle on 18, crowned her as a major champion!
Thank you; I will gladly take the +2000 win on her!
Like last week, we must put the shot glasses down and shift our focus to this week’s tournament. There’s more money to be made!
It’s a bittersweet week for the golf world. Yes, it’s The Open Championship week, but it’s also the fourth and final major of the season!
This year’s Open Championship is played at Royal Troon. The Open was last played here in 2016 when Henrik Stenson outlasted Phil Mickelson in the final round.
History, memories, triumphs. All the best memories here at Royal Troon. With a wicked nasty forecast, patience will be tested. These are the moments golf fans look forward to.
Key Metrics Correlated to Succes:
- Driving Accuracy
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- SG: Off the tee
- Putting 25+ Feet
- SG: Putting
- SG: Around the Green
- SG: T2G
- Good Drives
- SG: Hard Courses
The Open Championship Best Bets
Collin Morikawa to win +2200 | Top 20 -110
The 149th Open Championship winner, Collin Morikawa, is one of my favorite bets this week! Not only has he won multiple majors, but he’s playing some crazy impressive golf right now. This year, his worst finish at a major was T14 at the US Open. He’s finished inside the top 20 in every tournament since the Valero Texas Open back in April. It feels like he’s been in contention more times than he hasn’t in that span.
Morikawa’s game fits Royal Troon well. He’s first in driving accuracy over the last 36 rounds. At Royal Troon, missing fairways bring big scores into play. He’s also very good on approach and is one of the best around the green. At Royal Troon this week, you need a golfer who will hit greens in regulation and, should they miss, be highly skilled to get up and down. That’s precisely what Morikawa.
Akshay Bhatia to win +12500
Will Akshay Bhatia win? Most likely not. However, at +12500 and in his current form, I have to take a stab at him at that price.
Bhatia won the Valero Texas Open back in April and, since then, has proved that it was not just a fluke. He followed up his win with A T35 at his first Masters. He followed that up with a T18 at the RBC Heritage.
In his last two starts, he’s finished T5 and T2 with a gross close call at the Rocket Mortgage, where he surrendered the lead on 18 after a three-putt.
His game, like Morikawa’s, is a good fit here. He’s accurate off the tee, great on approach, and very skilled with a wedge in his hand.
Of course, we will need some luck with him on the right side of the weather draw, but it’s important to note that Bhatia is first in SG: Total in windy conditions (Data via Ron Klos).