Arnold Palmer Invitational: Outright Bets and Top Prop

The Florida Swing continues with the fourth signature event of the season. One of my favorite events. The Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’m excited for this event after Shane Lowry failed to convert his 54-hole lead (come on man) and give us back-to-back outright wins.

Bay Hill is in my backyard, and I love Arnold Palmer. I mean, I freaking work at the Golf Channel. So it’s exciting to take a trip down to Arnie’s place and watch some golf. However, the last two trips here were brutal. In 2022, Viktor Hovland was 2-over and finished T2. Then last year I went shorter on the outright selections and went heavy on Rory McIlroy at +1200, and of course, he finished T2 as well.

No more crying over spilled milk. I couldn’t be more due than I am right now.

That said, Bay Hills is a challenging yet rewarding course. The 7,422-yard par 72 course rewards strength off the tee and gainers on approach. While the firm and fast greens are demanding, putting excellence is not the highest metric correlated to success.

With strategically placed hazards and very thick rough, finding the fairways here is important. However, much like many courses in Florida, Bay Hill’s larger-than-average fairways give some relief for slightly misplaced drives.

Bay Hill is hard, but it’s a course where course history plays a major factor in success. Outside of Kurt Kitayama’s win in his first trip here, winners generally have one or more top-10 finishes before their victory. That said, it’s the year of the longshot. Since the Sentry, we have seen over six winners of +10000 or more. So, if there’s some aversion to betting on the guy at the top of the board, I totally understand. And… before I give out my bets, if it doesn’t abide by some perfect odds math, I’m sorry. Your boy is just trying to hit an outright!

Key Metrics to Success:

• Driving Distance
• Driving Accuracy
• Bogey Avoidance
• Proximity: 200+
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• SG: Around the Green
• Course History
• SG: Par 5
• SG: Putting

Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick +3300

Last week I was anticipating the Cognizant Classic and PGA National to play more difficult. It seems the widened fairways weren’t the only thing they did to make the course easier. They softened the course, could be the rain over the past weeks and months, or it could be the Tour making PGA National a course that players should not be afraid of.

Either way, my handicap of Matt Fitzpatrick to win the event lay heavily on his success on a difficult course. A T21 finish in a birdie fest, while he hadn’t been playing the best golf, is enough for me to fire away at him at a course that should suit his skillset more.

Fitzpatrick’s course history is some of the best in the field. Over the past five years, only McIlroy has gained more strokes than Fitzpatrick at Bay Hill. Before his T14 finish, Fitzpatrick had four straight top-10 finishes here, with a solo second in 2019.

In last week’s column, I mentioned that we shouldn’t worry about Fitzpatrick’s putting struggles because of his success putting on Bermuda. Well, not to pat myself on my back, I was correct, and Fitzpatrick gained +3 strokes on the putting surface.

Strong off the tee, great on approach, and a solid Bermuda putter with awesome course history, Fitzpatrick at +3300 is an auto bet for me.

Harris English +5500

Tournament runner-up Harris English is healthy and ready to take on the world. Or at least avenge last year’s effort and put forth a winning effort at this course. It makes sense why English has two top-10 finishes here, including last year’s T2. The Georgia native is a stud on difficult courses and is averaging more strokes gained per round on windy courses than on calm and moderate.

English is coming off a top-20 finish at the Phoenix Open and a 7th-place finish in his last start at the Genesis Open.

Sam Burns +2800

For a few weeks, I had been telling myself that I have Valspar circled for when I’ll be betting on Sam Burns. After completing my weekly research, I’m here betting on Burns this week at +2800. Burns has seen some success this season which is promising heading into API. He’s finished inside the top 10 in his last four events with a T3 at the Phoenix Open.

More impressive than his past results has been the flat stick. Burns has been a gainer on the putting greens in every event in 2024. If Bay Hill is bested by great ball striking, Burns is a golfer in form, who you must add to your betting card.

Ludvig Aberg +2200

Ludvig Aberg was a late add to the card, but one happily added after plenty of consideration. My biggest reason for initially bypassing Aberg was due to what seemed like him always missing easy putts. Call it media deception. Whenever I was watching Aberg on the broadcast, it seemed like he was always missing putts. However, this season he’s been a gainer on the putting surface in all but one event. In his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach, he gained 2.7 strokes on the putting green.

Aberg is long off the tee, hits fairways at a 64% clip, and is a 74% GIR guy. When his putter scorches, the young Tour pro seems to be in contention, he finished T24 here last season with terrible T2G play. Since last year, there have only been two events where he was not a gainer T2G.

Longshots to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.2 units each)

Jake Knapp +7000

After Jake Knap won me a cool 40 units at the Mexico Open, part of me felt obliged to find a reason to bet again last week. However, I didn’t think PGA National was a good fit. I almost tried to fade him due to how he plays off the tee. But he proved one thing by picking up his third top-five finish in four events, the kid is a baller.

His ball striking is phenomenal. He’s long off the tee and he’s very good at hitting long irons. These two assets will play well for him on this course. This number opened closer to +10000, I wish I was first at the window, but I’m still happy I’m at the window.

Matthieu Pavon +9000

Matthieu Pavon’s top Frenchmen might have been the worst beat I’ve taken on a course. Not because his T28 finish was anywhere close to his countryman Victor Perez’ T16, but because I would’ve been better suited just betting him top 40 at a better price.

Nonetheless, Pavon was another strong showing from a guy who I didn’t think was a great course fit at PGA National. However, the wider fairways here should help him more. He’s a great putter as well and doesn’t tend to add big scores to the scorecard.

Erik Van Rooyen +11000

Glancing over the pricing for this event and trying to find a logical longshot to win this event, Erik Van Rooyen was the first golfer that came to mind. It might be difficult to find this price in the market, but that’s more the reason to follow me on X (HERE) and get the big prices as soon as I bet them. It’s okay though, I’d still play him around as low as +8000.

What EVR did the last two weeks was remarkable. He came flying out of the gates in round one of the Mexico Open, gaining +7.5 strokes. He finished the week with a solid top-10 finish. He followed up that performance T2 finish at the Cognizant. All with a little help from a tournament-low 63 in the final round.

Van Rooyen is the highest-ranked golfer in my model over the past 24 rounds. He’s in the top 10 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: P, and SG: Par 5. He doesn’t have the strongest course history here, but in a recent interview, he mentioned how he’s playing some of the best golf of his life. If he’s really turned a corner in his career, now is a great time to grab him before he goes on an insane run.

Kurt Kitayama +11300

The defending champion being over +10000 is criminal. Even if this turns out to be the worst bet of all time, I’m backing it. In Kurt Kitayama’s win last season, he was phenomenal in the two places that matter the most; off the tee and on the putting surface. Kitayama is another golfer who sees a putting boost in Bermuda. If you’re hunting for a long shot, with his driving prowess, he should be on your radar.

Top Proposition Bet for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Rory McIlroy Top 10 +105

I would hate for Rory McIlroy to win this event and I don’t have anything on him at all. I couldn’t bring myself to bet him at +1000 unless it was the only outright bet, I took this week. I’m not sure I trust his game enough to do that. However, there are a few true things that make him worth consideration.

McIlroy, Golf Channel Ambassador, loved Arnold Palmer. The respect he had for Mr. Palmer before his passing has been talked about enough to make it make sense why he loves playing at this event every year.

Outside of his respect for Mr. Palmer, this course sets up well for McIlroy. Bay Hill is generally dominated by strong off-the-tee golfers who can rack up on approach. McIlroy is precisely that. It also helps when you’re just a really good golfer. I’d imagine if we look at all the tournaments where McIlroy plays regularly, he has a similar tournament history at more than 75% of them.

McIlroy has finished inside the top 10 in all but two trips here since 2017. Not to mention he won this event in 2018.

McIlroy might be the best driver of the ball in this field. He’s strong tee-to-green, and if his putter cooperates, he will be in contention come Sunday.