Betting Against Hovland at the Masters
Viktor Hovland is on my TV practically every day telling me his short game has improved, that he has finally – at long last – fixed the around-the-green issues that have so vexed him over the years.
Hovland’s Ping commercial is centered around change, both for Ping’s reputation as a manufacturer of wedges and Hovland as a top-flight PGA pro with a short game to match his elite ball striking. “Change,” Hovland tells the camera after hitting a Ping wedge, “feels good.”
Even a cursory glance at Hovland’s 2024 stats, however, leaves a golf fan wondering what, exactly, the well-dressed Norwegian is talking about.
Hovland, entering April, ranks 204th out of 205 qualifying PGA Tour players in strokes gained around the green. Only Adrian Dumont De Chassart has been worse in 2024. So, I suppose there has been a change in Hovland’s game this year: He’s much, much worse chipping and operating from the sand. In other words, grinding. Despite his struggles, Hovland (+1800) maintains the third best odds behind Rory McIlroy and Scotties Scheffler to wear the green jacket in two weeks.
The stats are damning for an otherwise-elite player who has reportedly worked tirelessly to improve his short game. Hovland in 2024 ranks 196th in sand saves; he is 217th in scrambling from the rough; and he is 151st in proximity to the pin on shots within 30 yards of the green. The one bright spot – and one that could certainly carry weight next month at Augusta – is Hovland’s short-grass around-the-green success. In saving par from the fairway after missing the green in regulation, Hovland ranks a respectable 39th this season. That is better than a host of top players, including Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, and Brian Harman.
Hovland’s robotic tee-to-green consistency used to serve as a deodorant for his miserable short game and occasional putting struggles. The fairway-finding, pin-hunting version of Hovland is nowhere to be found this season. He reportedly is undergoing swing changes, but it appears to be a work in progress as he seemingly yanks every drive left without his usual fade.
Through mid-March, Hovland’s strokes gained on approach sits at 117th out of 209 qualifying PGA Tour players. Though his strokes gained off the tee remains in the top-20, his ball striking now ranks 55th on Tour. Just last year, Hovland was third in ball striking behind Morikawa and the machine-like Scottie Scheffler. Without that world-class ball striking, Hovland in 2024 has been forced to lean on his less-than-stellar short game. And the results have been self-evident.
Barring some kind of see-the-light moment for Hovland over the next two weeks, his around the green game makes him a poor fit — to put it kindly — for Augusta National. Strokes gained around the green is more important at Augusta than all but six courses the pros play all year. Per the metrics, Hovland is one of the worst bets on the board and certainly a candidate to fade in head-to-head matchups offered by the sportsbooks.