Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets
We are just a week away from the PGA Championship, and World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is not in the field for the Wells Fargo Championship as he is awaiting the birth of his first child. Scheffler isn’t the only golfer missing in action this week. The talented youngster Ludvig Aberg is set to miss after withdrawing Monday morning, citing a knee injury as the reason for his absence.
With the two out this week and Aberg withdrawing after the opening odds were released, the pricing for a few more prominent names certainly took a hit. Those who were by their computers and betting apps could take advantage of stale pricing. I was not; that’s not stopping me from betting on this week’s event and hopefully cashing an outright bet.
This week’s Wells Fargo Championship is being played at the iconic Quail Hollow. Home to Tour events, majors, and Presidents Cups, the 7,558-yard par-71 course offers a challenging task for the 70 golfers to tee it up this week. The course length off the tee and the golfers must also be sharp with their long irons and remain focused on the greens.
Key Metrics to Success:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Driving Distance
- SG: Approach
- Par 4: 450-500
- SG: Approach
- Proximity: 175-200
- 3 Putt Avoid
- SG: Putting
Primary Betting Model:
Best Bets for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship
Xander Schaffuele to Win +1050
I considered spreading my wagers around instead of taking just one or two of the golfers at the top of the board. However, I decided to take Xander Schaffuele to win at a short price, which basically limited the number of golfers I could bet on.
It wasn’t with light consideration that I came to this decision. Initially, I was 100% single bulleting Aberg to win. However, when he withdrew, that sent me into pivot mode.
Betting on Schaffeule here should make a bit of sense. Not only did he finish runner-up here last season, but he’s probably the most complete and consistent golfer in the field. He’s first in the field in SG in the last 24 rounds, and his game travels well to most golf courses.
Specifically, you’d want to bet on or roster strong all-around golfers at difficult courses. RickRunGood.com data tools have Schaffuele first in their Adjusted Course Fit model.
There’s no question that Schaffuele is in great form. His attitude in his losses has made me feel more confident in backing him at a short price. He sounds comfortable and poised to win again soon.
Other Outright Bet: Wyndham Clark +1600
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Stephan Jaeger Top 20 +175
This is my weekly reminder to pay attention to whether or not your book pays ties in full or does dead heat.
Stephan Jaeger to finish inside the top 20 is my favorite bet this week. His pricing, at times, feels almost disrespectful. He’s only won once on the PGA Tour, but he’s so talented you’d imagine his top 20 price in smaller fields would be closer to the +120 range.
Jaeger’s strength off the tee should give him a massive advantage on the field this week. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s fifth in SG: OTT and 10th in driving distance.
He’s also playing some fairly good golf this season. He has finished in the top 20 at three of his last four events, including his win at the Houston Open.
Other Placement Bets: Xander Schaffuele Top 10 +105